The new Crossrail business case, which makes the same assumptions as when it was last published five years ago, said that the benefit cost ratio (BCR) increased from 1.80 in 2005 to 2.08 in 2010 if calculated in the same model as 2005.

A more improved BCR of 1.87 is realised if modeled using the Department of Transport (DfT) time forecasting WebTAG system. This rises to 2.55 if calculated using the TfL time model, which is based more on employment levels in London - currently a third higher than the national average.

Greater economic benefits from Crossrail, such as additional tax revenue for the government, are said to worth between £6 billion and £18 billion in 2002 prices. These increase the BCR from 1.87 to between 2.73 and 3.05 using the DfT model, and from 2.55 to between 3.47 and 4.91 using the mean values applied by TfL. Expressed in terms of impact on GDP, the wider impact is up to £50 billion in 2010 prices.

An important change since the 2005 evaluation case is the adoption of the GDP growth rate revised to reflect the recent economic downturn. The impact of lower growth rate is to reduce the BCR approximately 12% compared to the 2005 report.

A summary report of the business model says that, compared to the costs associated with building Crossrail and expenditure management and maintenance services - including the cost of long-term infrastructure renewal - Crossrail generates significant net economic benefits i.e. £6.5 blllion or £11.5bn depending on whether DfT or TfL’s model is used.

It says that the demand for Crossrail may smash current forecasts. Research carried out for TfL and DfT in the application of other new services such as Thameslink, Paris RER and the Jubilee Line extension demonstrates that transport projects that are primarily designed to reduce congestion on existing infrastructure generally meet or exceed their original forecasts of demand.

Crossrail adds value to the London business fraternity

NWC, representing 600 businesses on London’s Oxford Street, Regent Street and Bond Street, wants the area to meet the needs of shoppers rather than acting as highway for traffic. It has a published vision for the West End in 2020 which says: “The multi-million pound Crossrail development allows for a radical rethink of traffic with 30% more capacity at two new stations on Oxford Street, thus giving way for ambitions to reduce all surface traffic.”

By 2020 it wants to provide 50% more space for pedestrians along with a “dedicated surface transit system down Oxford Street and Regent Street”. Although stopping short of backing full pedestrianisation of Oxford Street - currently a thoroughfare for London buses - it advocates a series of measures providing a stepping stone to achieving this vision. It calls for ’shopping hours’ to be introduced by 2015, leading to 40% less traffic between 10.00 and 16.00 hours daily.

The Company also wants to increase the number of diagonal crossings for pedestrians, mirroring the Shibuya style design at Oxford Circus, with a new crossing at the Tottenham Court Road. At this eastern end of Oxford Street it wants extensive changes to take place during Crossrail work currently underway.

“With over £1bn being invested into east Oxford Street in Crossrail and other major developments, there is an opportunity for a major reshaping and regeneration of an area considered as the ‘poor relation’ to the more developed west end of Oxford Street and Regent Street,” the group adds.

NWC says it wants 20 new public spaces in the West End by 2020 expecting an additional 21 international stores to trade from the area by 2012. Dame Judith Mayhew Jonas, chairman, New West End Company, said: “We are confident that with full backing from both the public and private sector our strategic vision for the next 10 years will ensure that London’s West End continues to evolve and remains the world’s leading retail and leisure destination.”

New Crossrail stations are being built from west to east at Bond Street and Tottenham Court Road and where the existing Tube stations will be rebuilt to increase passenger capacity by LUL

A new Oxford Street?