Posts Tagged ‘DfT’

The business case for the construction of Crossrail has improved after an updated assessment of the project was recently published by Transport for London (TfL).

The new Crossrail business case, which makes the same assumptions as when it was last published five years ago, said that the benefit cost ratio (BCR) increased from 1.80 in 2005 to 2.08 in 2010 if calculated in the same model as 2005.

A more improved BCR of 1.87 is realised if modeled using the Department of Transport (DfT) time forecasting WebTAG system. This rises to 2.55 if calculated using the TfL time model, which is based more on employment levels in London – currently a third higher than the national average.

Greater economic benefits from Crossrail, such as additional tax revenue for the government, are said to worth between £6 billion and £18 billion in 2002 prices. These increase the BCR from 1.87 to between 2.73 and 3.05 using the DfT model, and from 2.55 to between 3.47 and 4.91 using the mean values applied by TfL. Expressed in terms of impact on GDP, the wider impact is up to £50 billion in 2010 prices.

An important change since the 2005 evaluation case is the adoption of the GDP growth rate revised to reflect the recent economic downturn. The impact of lower growth rate is to reduce the BCR approximately 12% compared to the 2005 report.

A summary report of the business model says that, compared to the costs associated with building Crossrail and expenditure management and maintenance services – including the cost of long-term infrastructure renewal – Crossrail generates significant net economic benefits i.e. £6.5 blllion or £11.5bn depending on whether DfT or TfL’s model is used.

It says that the demand for Crossrail may smash current forecasts. Research carried out for TfL and DfT in the application of other new services such as Thameslink, Paris RER and the Jubilee Line extension demonstrates that transport projects that are primarily designed to reduce congestion on existing infrastructure generally meet or exceed their original forecasts of demand.

Crossrail adds value to the London business fraternity